Currencies

In 2018, the US dollar benefitted from the growing gap in interest rates. Larger inflows of capital led to a real effective upward revaluation of the greenback. The US dollar rose almost 2 per cent against the Swiss franc, more than 5 per cent against the euro and about 6 per cent against the British pound. Investment experts expect that the dollar will gain less ground in 2019. In April 2018, the euro reached its high point of the year against the Swiss franc of CHF 1.20; by the end of December, it had slipped to CHF 1.13. The SNB believes that its own currency is overvalued. The situation on the foreign exchange market continues to be fragile. In the SNB’s view, the negative interest rate and its readiness, if necessary, to intervene in the foreign exchange market are still necessary because it wants to reduce the attractiveness of investments in Swiss francs to relieve the upward pressure on the currency. However, it seems that the Swiss National Bank has not made any large market interventions for about one and a half years. Most market participants interpret this to mean that, with exchange rates of over EUR / CHF 1.14, no market interventions by the SNB are to be expected.